Market Outlook #262 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #262 (third April 2024)

Hey and welcome to the 262nd instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s put up, I will likely be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Polygon, Optimism, Casper and Realio.

As ever, when you’ve got any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of electronic mail or within the feedback.

Bitcoin:

Month-to-month:

Weekly:

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by wanting on the month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we will see that final month was the very best ever shut for Bitcoin on probably the most quantity in over a 12 months, closing firmly by means of $69k into $71.3k. That is – as I’m certain you might be conscious – not bearish. Taking a look at this timeframe, so long as we maintain above $58kish in April, this nonetheless appears tremendous bullish for the approaching quarter. If April closes beneath $58k, we have now a bit extra of a difficulty, because it appears extra like a false breakout than an actual one, however with this quantity profile and construction I’m leaning closely in the direction of the notion that each one April dips are for getting. Wanting forward, so long as we do maintain above $58k, I feel we see $100k traded by Q3, and we will see why within the weekly chart…

Wanting on the weekly, the very first thing to level out is that regardless of 4 weeks of consolidation round these all-time highs the parabolic advance stays intact, and we might proceed to consolidate for a few weeks but with out breaking it. Weekly momentum indicators proceed to level to greater costs with no exhaustion seen but, and on the worst – so long as the parabola holds – I feel we see a pointy wick beneath $61k into $59k after which bounce greater quickly from there. The extra bullish state of affairs right here is the formation of a higher-low this week above $61k that results in one other stab at all-time highs subsequent week, resulting in an eventual breakout earlier than Could and subsequent value discovery, with the rallies getting sharper from there in the direction of $100k by July.

Sooner or later that parabola will break: it’ll both be quickly, and we’ll see an extended consolidation by means of summer season earlier than reversal probably late in Q3 going into the election cycle; or in a couple of months time, after which I don’t understand how the cycle would play out from a parabolic break of say $140k. If we have a look at the each day, we will see that some form of ascending triangle is at the moment forming into these all-time highs and above the curve of the parabola. If we shut the each day beneath that, that is likely to be an early indicator of misplaced momentum and subsequently the start of a bigger transfer down, probably in the direction of that $49-53k vary in a number of weeks time. If, nevertheless, we proceed to type higher-lows right here into mid-April I feel we push by means of $74k and start the subsequent leg. The liquidation cascade state of affairs can be a pointy wick by means of $61k that results in a push into $59k – probably within the subsequent week or so – earlier than a tough v-reversal leaving late shorts trapped and liquidated longs chasing value greater. Let’s see how this week closes out…

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that the pair is consolidating beneath $3580 resistance, closing marginally above it final week however on low quantity in a good vary – and early this week promoting off from that open again in the direction of the prior low at $3057. For now, the pair is holding above that low, however I feel its trajectory relies upon BTC/USD over the subsequent week or two. If we drop into the each day for readability, we will see how a lower-high has shaped beneath $3726, however value is at the moment discovering help and $3222 – the early March low. If this help holds for the remainder of the week, I can see continuation greater by means of $3726 to invalidate the decrease excessive subsequent week. Now, if we shut beneath $3222, I might count on $3057 to be taken out. What occurs afterwards is reaction-dependent: if we sweep $3057 and shut again above it, then pushing sharply again above $3222, I feel we mark a backside and proceed greater from there; if as a substitute we shut beneath $3057 and that stage acts as resistance, the pair is more likely to return to $2735 earlier than a backside is discovered. I’m at the moment leaning in the direction of one of many first two situations, as except $59k falls for BTC/USD, I can’t see us getting $2735 for ETH.

Turning to ETH/BTC, this pair appears significantly woeful and anaemic after the previous week or two of grinding decrease, and we are actually pushing beneath the final line of defence at 0.051. If we shut beneath this stage, I feel it’s probably we take out the yearly low at 0.0478 into 0.0461. If we shut the week above 0.051 like we have now the final couple of weeks, that might present some power from bulls and we may be marking out a really uneven native backside. It’s laborious to get enthusiastic about ETH when the BTC pair is wanting like this, however I’m certain we’ll get some sense of path within the subsequent couple of weeks…

Cardano:

ADA/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

ADA/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, on the weekly we will see that value has rallied again to the 200wMA, discovering resistance at $0.75 for 3 weeks earlier than rejecting and transferring decrease, now at marginally again beneath resistance at $0.60, which was performing as help. Now we have momentum exhaustion right here as effectively, supporting the concept Cardano is an underperformer right here, and I might count on value to drift again in the direction of $0.47 if we shut beneath $0.60 this week. Dropping into the each day, we will see how $0.68 acted as reclaimed resistance after breaking again beneath it, and now construction is firmly bearish, with no signal of exhaustion simply but. If reject off of $0.60 as reclaimed resistance this week, I’m a return to that 200dMA and prior resistance turned help at $0.47-0.49. If bulls in some way flip up right here, I feel that is solely an extended again above $0.68, trying to purchase that as resistance turned help and commerce it greater into $0.90.

Turning to ADA/BTC, we will see that value rejected at 1588 satoshis and has been trending decrease all 12 months, retracing the whole rally from the October 2023 backside again into help right here at 858,. Now that is far more supportive for some aid for Cardano, given the response off this stage late final 12 months, but when we shut the weekly beneath 858 that might be disastrous, with one other 20% drop into the subsequent help at 700 satoshis. If we do discover help right here once more, which will present confluence if the Greenback pair can get again above that $0.68 stage for continuation greater.

Polygon:

MATIC/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

MATIC/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, we will see from the weekly that value is sat on trendline help from the October 2023 backside and hovering above the 200wMA, having pushed beneath reclaimed help at $0.92 this week. MATIC bulls need to see this space maintain agency and value to push again above $0.92 for the weekly shut, which can then look extra like a sweep of native lows into main help and sure a higher-low type continuation in the direction of $1.31 and past. If, nevertheless, $0.92 begins to behave as resistance subsequent week, and we break beneath that trendline, I might count on to see one other close to 20% of draw back in the direction of $0.74 as the subsequent main help. If we drop into the each day, we see comparable construction to ADA/USD with no indicators of development exhaustion simply but, opening up the chance of that bigger transfer decrease into $0.74, with the 200dMA and 360dMA hovering above that. If we will catch a bid right here and push again above $1, that’s a pleasant lengthy for the $1.31 retest, with a view to hedge there and reopen on acceptance above that stage.

Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see simply how poorly this has carried out, breaking beneath multi-year help and turning it into resistance, then grinding decrease for weeks, now sat in no man’s land at 1350 satoshis. There isn’t a main help beneath this all the way in which into 948. There are additionally no indicators but of development exhaustion right here. If something, you probably need to maintain off any spot purchases till 1720 satoshis is reclaimed as help or value trades into that 948 stage. Not enticing in any respect right here.

Optimism:

OP/USD

Each day:

OP/BTC

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Focusing right here on OP/USD, given the comparatively brief price-history of Optimism, we will see that value shaped an all-time excessive in March round $4.92, from which level it has retraced, breaking again beneath prior highs turned resistance at $4.24 after which pushing into help at $3, above which it at the moment sits. Construction is bearish right here, as is momentum, however we have now the beginnings of some exhaustion on the Superior Oscillator. Nonetheless, I do suppose this continues to puke in the direction of the 200dMA, probably sweeping the swing-low into $2.56 earlier than marking out a backside. So long as we don’t shut beneath $2.33, I feel this nonetheless simply appears like a broad vary above historic resistance turned help; shut beneath that and this appears far more bearish. If we will mark out a backside above $2.56, I’m searching for $5.80 as the subsequent goal for my spot holdings.

Casper:

CSPR/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

CSPR/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: If we start by CSPR/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has been in a broad vary for nearly two years now, with newer value motion confined between help at $0.031 and help turned resistance at $0.055. We’re again on the backside of that shallower vary throughout the broader vary and that is largely simply chop at current. Casper was born within the bear market and has solely identified a downtrend and an extended flat consolidation, so it’s in all probability price shopping for partials near vary help and including to your place on a clear weekly shut by means of $0.054, when you’ve got elementary conviction on this undertaking. Above $0.054, I feel the primary bull cycle is more likely to start, and I wouldn’t expect something lower than $0.226 as a primary goal, however probably costs past $0.36 given it has by no means skilled a bull cycle.

Turning to CSPR/BTC, in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless in its long-term downtrend since inception, with latest value motion breaking beneath prior all-time lows at 83 satoshis and pushing into 63, earlier than turning that into resistance and now sitting at 52 satoshis. Now we have the makings of minor development exhaustion right here however we’re very a lot in bearish value discovery. I might be searching for construction and momentum to point out us clear indicators of bullishness earlier than stepping in to be trustworthy. If we drop into the each day, this might take the type of a trendline breakout adopted by a reclaim of 63 satoshis as help, which might make for a pleasant entry. If we break beneath 52, there isn’t any understanding the place this stops.

Realio:

RIO/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

RIO/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Worth:

Market Cap:

Ideas: Starting with RIO/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has been in a powerful uptrend since November 2022, persevering with to carry to a parabolic advance, with final week seeing the pair push by means of the ultimate resistance stage at $2.74 on big quantity into $5.61, however finally reject and shut again inside $2.73. Momentum indicators don’t present indicators on exhaustion right here and slightly I count on we see a few weeks of consolidation right here earlier than the breakout is validated and value continues to run greater in the direction of the all-time highs at $10.72 within the subsequent couple of months. So long as the parabola holds, there isn’t any have to count on something aside from what we have now already been seeing. If we break the parabola, it’s probably we get a deeper correction in the direction of $0.99 earlier than any continuation.

Turning to RIO/BTC, we will see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and final week noticed value shut by means of a cluster of resistance on nice quantity and with new highs on momentum indicators, discovering resistance round 5772 satoshis and now consolidating between there and reclaimed help at 1836. As talked about above, I might count on continued consolidation right here earlier than a weekly shut by means of 5772, which would be the catalyst for the steepest a part of the parabola, with no resistance between there and all-time highs. On this chart, that’s marked out as 96k satoshis, however I feel it is a misprint – both method, above 6k satoshis, I feel you’re successfully in value discovery mode for the BTC pair. So long as this holds above 1155 construction can be nonetheless bullish, so there may be plenty of draw back we might see earlier than any break in construction.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me immediately at [email protected].