Market Outlook #249 (eleventh December 2023)
Hey, and welcome to the 249th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I might be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Optimism, Alchemix, Altered State Machine and Raini.
As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that final week closed at recent yearly highs, by $42k resistance on rising quantity. Worth closed out the week simply shy of $44k and early buying and selling this week has seen value dump again beneath $42k however maintain above $39.7k as help, pushing up from that space again in direction of $42k, the place it’s at present sat. Taking a look at this, there may be little or no to recommend any slowdown, notably after final week’s shut by that confluence of resistance. While we proceed to carry above $39.7k this week, I believe we see this consolidation round $42k result in additional enlargement subsequent week into the 61.8% retracement degree and prior resistance at $48k, the place it’s possible we begin to kind a neighborhood prime. If, nevertheless, this sell-off continues later this week and we shut the week again beneath $39.7k, it’s possible the native prime has shaped right here and we are able to search for additional draw back subsequent week into $36k to retest all that prior resistance as help; beneath that degree, we filter out all of the untapped lows into $33k. That’s the roadmap from each views going into 2024.
Turning to the every day, we are able to see that value offered off sharply yesterday in one thing of a mini liquidation cascade, taking it from up close to $44k down into $40k, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating proper beneath that $42k degree. At current, $42k is every day resistance, so reclaiming that over the subsequent day or two would recommend an additional restoration of that cascade and sure a march to recent highs from there; if, nevertheless, $42k continues to behave as resistance this week, we could have additional to fall but earlier than discovering a backside, with $39.6k but untested – a second leg decrease into that degree adopted by a $42k reclaim could be a pleasant backside formation to search for longs. As talked about above, till we shut the upper timeframes beneath $39.6k, I don’t assume this uptrend is finished fairly but. And above $45k there may be solely air into $48k.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth:
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Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see that value closed firmly by resistance at $2170 final week, pushing as excessive as $2400 earlier than closing at $2350 on good quantity. We have been inches shy of that $2425 degree however value has rejected that resistance early this week, clearing out the prior weekly low into prior resistance turned help at $2170 and bouncing off it. If we are able to now maintain above that degree, that appears very very like just a little flush earlier than enlargement past the 38.2% fib and reclaimed resistance at $2426, with $2650 the subsequent degree of curiosity above that. If we shut the weekly again beneath $2170, I’d anticipate $1850 to be retested earlier than a backside is discovered, the place there may be loads of confluence. Turning to the every day, we are able to see how the pair depraved proper into that prior resistance cluster earlier than bouncing arduous yesterday, so holding above $2137 over the subsequent day or two is paramount for this construction to stay legitimate as resistance turned help; begin closing again inside these resistances and the image seems much less fairly, with a load of untapped lows seen earlier than that $1850 degree comes into view, the place the 200dMA can be sat…
Trying now at ETH/BTC, final week retested 0.051 as help and held as soon as once more, bouncing off that to shut at 0.0537, however remaining firmly capped by 0.0551 as resistance. As talked about final week, the image may be very clear right here: beneath 0.051 we take out 0.04877 earlier than discovering a backside; and above 0.0551 and the 200wMA we pattern in direction of trendline resistance. No must make it any extra difficult than that. An extended-term reversal solely turns into excessive chance as soon as we flip that multi-year trendline into help, in my view.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
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Every day:
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Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that value bounced off that 200wMA final week and rallied again into help turned resistance at $0.92, closing proper at that confluence of resistance. Early this week, the pair has offered off, holding above the 200wMA and now sat in no man’s land inside the prior weekly vary. Till we get a weekly shut above $0.93, we are able to’t be sure of additional enlargement / pattern continuation, however given the construction right here and the response off the 200wMA I’m leaning in direction of a breakout quickly. If we drop into the every day, we are able to see that value additionally held above the 200dMA, front-running it as help earlier than reversing. So long as we now kind a higher-low above $0.77, I’d anticipate the subsequent crack at $0.93 to offer method and for the pair to then broaden in direction of $1.30 within the coming weeks.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that value rallied off of help final week, wicking in direction of 1717 satoshis earlier than closing the week at highs round 2100. This can be a promising signal for bulls, and if we are able to now maintain above 2000 I’d anticipate the vary to get crammed in in direction of the 200wMA and prior help turned resistance at 2450. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than retracing into that help cluster and now turning every day construction bullish on the latest bounce. Acceptance above 2100 on the every day right here is essential, as that might make it very possible we break past the 200dMA once more, and often the second breakout from a bottoming formation will not be a fakeout, so we might anticipate to see 2450 satoshis adopted by 2950.
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
UNI/BTC
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Ideas: Starting with UNI/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that value poked above $6.30 final week, pushing in direction of $7.50 earlier than closing again close to $6.60. We positively have bullish construction right here however UNI stays inside a 580-day vary, having spent a lot of 2023 chopping round above vary help and beneath $7.50. From right here, I want to see this space round $6.30 maintain as help and value to shut the weekly by $7.50 later in December; that for me is the start of the subsequent cycle for UNI, given how that degree has capped the pair since September 2022. Above it, I believe we take out the $9.90 excessive and proceed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at $13.87 earlier than discovering any significant resistance. Trying on the every day, on this timeframe it’s key we maintain above $5.65 as reclaimed help; a pleasant wick beneath $5.84 into that degree adopted by a reclaim of $6.30 later within the week could be a very nice sign for additional upside, in my opinion.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that value is now consolidating above multi-year help at 14k satoshis after deviating beneath it. While this degree continues to carry as reclaimed help, I believe it seems very very like the underside has shaped right here and we are able to anticipate a transfer by 17.5k satoshis to come back sooner somewhat than later; above that, weekly construction turns bullish and I’d expect outperformance for UNI all the best way again in direction of that 26.7k satoshis space. Dropping into the every day we are able to see how the 200dMA continues to cap the rallies lately, so a transfer by 17.5k would additionally flip that into help, offering confluence for additional upside.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Every day:
OP/BTC
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Market Cap:
Ideas: As Optimism has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at OP/USD, we are able to see that value may be very a lot in an uptrend, having marked out a backside in June and a macro higher-low in October, then breaking by trendline resistance from the all-time excessive, flipping the 200dMA as help and persevering with to tear increased. Final week noticed the pair push by the $2 space as resistance into reclaimed resistance proper round $2.40, beneath which it at present sits. That is arguably an important resistance on the chart at current, with it being each the 61.8% fib retracement of the bear market and the double prime from 2022. Settle for above this degree as reclaimed help and I believe we get a parabolic transfer in direction of all-time highs from there, with a excessive chance that this second bull cycle takes OP into value discovery past $3.30 given the market situations.
Alchemix:
ALCX/USD
Every day:
ALCX/BTC
Every day:
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Ideas: As each pairs look equivalent right here for ALCX, let’s deal with the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at ALCX/USD, we are able to see that value had shaped a long-term backside at $16.42, earlier than breaching it to kind a double backside at $13.46 in 2023. Subsequently, in August 2023, we deviated beneath that double backside, shaped a recent all-time low at $10.27 after which consolidated for a couple of months between that low and prior help turned resistance, additionally discovering resistance on the 200dMA, above which the pair had not discovered help (past a short fakeout) for a number of years. Worth has since emerged from this vary, reclaiming each $13.46 and $16.42 as help, turning every day construction bullish. Concurrently, we’ve turned the 200dMA into help, above which a higher-low has shaped. Worth rallied from that low into $26.44 final week earlier than rejecting and now retracing again into prior resistance at $18.70. So long as the pair can proceed to carry above $16.42 right here, I’d anticipate to see continuation increased, as that is very a lot a classical cyclical backside at current and any transfer above $26 will possible be the start of the subsequent bull cycle for ALCX. For targets on spot baggage, $73 could be the primary space of curiosity after the hole fill, adopted by $178 after which $478 as main resistance.
Altered State Machine:
ASTO/USD
Every day:
ASTO/BTC
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Worth:
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Ideas: Once more, as ASTO has solely been buying and selling for round 18 months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at ASTO/USD, we are able to see that value has concluded its first bear cycle, shedding 97% of its worth from the all-time highs at $0.40. Worth backside in October at $0.014 earlier than starting a pointy rally since, reclaiming a number of ranges of help and shutting firmly above the 200dMA, which acted as help in November. Worth is now sandwiched between help turned resistance at $0.052 and reclaimed help at $0.037, sitting marginally above the 360dMA at current. So long as the $0.037 space holds as help, I believe the construction right here is ok regardless of the divergence in momentum; shut beneath that and we possible retraced again in direction of $0.029 to search out help once more, with $0.024 because the golden alternative for a spot entry if that comes. If this construction does maintain and value merely consolidates inside this vary, I’d look to purchase spot on acceptance above $0.052, as there may be principally no resistance above that for an additional 100% rally, and no resistance past $0.13 all the best way into $0.25. I believe when this one rips, it’ll actually rip, with recent highs past $0.40 possible in 2024.
RAINI:
RAINI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
RAINI/BTC
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Ideas: Starting with RAINI/USD, we are able to see that value closed final week at recent yearly highs for 2023, marginally by resistance at $0.05. We have now since continued to push increased early this week with $0.05 appearing as help. If that degree can proceed to behave as help this week, there is no such thing as a actual resistance on the weekly timeframe again into the 38.2% fib of the bear market and reclaimed resistance at $0.08-$0.088. That may be the place I’d anticipate a neighborhood prime to start to kind, from which we could get the primary main correction for Raini of this new cycle. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $0.05 this week after which shut again beneath it, it’s possible the native prime is in right here and I’d search for a higher-low to kind above $0.035 earlier than continuation into that vary above. In the end, that is one I’m seeking to maintain for a lot of extra months but, with expectations of recent all-time highs past $0.20 in 2024, notably given the Beam narrative.
Turning to RAINI/BTC, we are able to see that value is at present sat proper round that 38.2% fib however there isn’t an historic degree right here for confluence. I’d anticipate 156 satoshis to be retested as resistance if we are able to maintain above 121 right here. Past that degree, recent yearly highs are on the best way by 183, with 230 satoshis the extent to observe for past that. Once more, when you’re in a spot place like me, I’m now sitting on my arms till we hit 280 satoshis as main resistance, promoting a partial after which letting the remainder journey for recent all-time highs.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me immediately at [email protected].
